AUD Resilient Amid Oil Surge, Interest Rate Differential Supports

The Australian dollar has demonstrated resilience despite higher oil prices, despite Australia’s heavy dependence on oil imports. Kit Juckes of Societe Generale believes the AUD’s minimal response to the energy shock indicates that market participants are not rushing to unwind speculative long positions already established in the foreign exchange market. Since late February, the AUD/USD has barely declined, reinforcing the view that the previously feared correction is not yet a major scenario, although the risk of a prolonged oil surge remains a vulnerability for the domestic economy. Juckes emphasized that the main support currently comes from relative interest rate movements, which still favor the AUD. He believes the interest rate differential provides a stronger cushion than in 2022, when the AUD/USD was at 0.76. Cross-currency, the AUD/CAD has even recorded positive performance since the US-Iran war began, confirming that yield factors and market positioning still dominate the AUD’s direction. Against this backdrop, a strategy of maintaining a long bias is considered relevant as long as interest rate differentials do not reverse and speculative positions do not show clear signs of unwinding.(Cp) Source: Newsmaker.id

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